VALIDATE / MULTIPLE TESTING

Every new trial makes an attractive Sharpe less surprising.

DSR helps distinguish rare quality from the expected winner of a large search and stays beside the complete trial history.

EVIDENCE / VERDICTRESILIENT
UNSEEN
HOLDOUTPASSDSR0.93PBO18%
SYSTEM DOMAIN03 / VALIDATE

Challenge the candidate before risk

  1. DISCOVER
  2. OPTIMIZE
  3. VALIDATE
  4. RUN
  5. OBSERVE
01

Plain Sharpe

Measures the selected series but does not know how many alternatives were discarded.

02

Trial count

More trials raise the benchmark the selected candidate needs to exceed.

03

Distribution shape

Skew and kurtosis affect confidence in the observed Sharpe.

04

Method boundary

DSR does not prove an economic mechanism or replace holdout and walk-forward.

DECISION FRAMEWORK

Which independent test could still reject the candidate?

Treat holdout, time stability, multiple-testing correction and stress paths as separate evidence. Agreement matters more than one green metric.

01

Protect unseen data

02

Record every trial

03

Accept FAIL and insufficient data

OUTPUT

Validation verdict

Important

Historical, statistical and model results do not promise future returns. kquant provides computational tools and technical execution, but does not assess whether a specific trade is suitable for a user.